The party platform makes that clear. It states: "Any U.S.
military policy should have the objective of providing security
for the lives, liberty and property of the American people in
the U.S. against the risk of attack by a foreign power."
Such a "risk of attack" must obviously be immediate, grave,
and unequivocal. Otherwise, the government could point to
almost any risk -- no matter how unlikely or insignificant --
as a rationale for war.
Given this straightforward self-defense mandate, is the
United States justified in going to war against Iraq?
The Bush administration says it is. It argues:
1) Iraq posses nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons of
mass destruction (WMD) that threaten the security of the United
States.
2) Saddam Hussein is a past and future ally of terrorists
who threaten the United States.
Below, we Libertarians will address
each of these arguments.
The Bush administration has offered other rationales for
war: Saddam is a thug who oppresses his own people and
threatens his neighbors. He has violated U.N. and international
agreements. And he has hindered U.N. weapons inspections.
Those accusations all seem to be true.
But for a Libertarian, they are not valid reasons to go to war,
since they go far beyond any proper defensive role for the U.S.
military. It is not the job of the United States to liberate
the oppressed people of the world, nor to defend Arab nations
against aggression, nor to enforce international treaties, nor
to compel Hussein to open his borders to U.N. weapons
inspectors.
What about the U.N. report that says Iraq did not prove
conclusively that it dismantled its weapons of mass
destruction? The mere possession of
weapons is not a valid reason for the U.S. to invade a
sovereign nation. After all, Iraq is not the only nation with
such armaments. According to the Pentagon, 12 nations have
nuclear weapons programs, 13 nations possess biological
weapons, 16 nations have chemical weapons, and 28 nations are
armed with ballistic missiles.
"But no other of those nations is
facing the threat of having its leadership overthrown [by armed
invasion]," note Ivan Eland and Bernard Gourley in a briefing
paper for the Cato Institute (December 17, 2002).
In a similar vein, most of the more colorful anti-war
allegations from the Left are also irrelevant: That a war is a
ploy to capture Iraq's oil fields for Bush's oil-tycoon
friends, or to distract attention from a frail economy, or a
son's effort to finish what Bush Senior started. Those
allegations merely distract from the central question: Is a war
with Iraq necessary for the security of the United States?
An examination from a Libertarian perspective of the
arguments for war presents an unambiguous answer:
No.
The evidence makes it clear that Iraq
does not pose an immediate, grave, and unequivocal threat to
the security of the U.S.
Eland and Gourley sum up the view of most libertarian
defense experts. "Hussein's threat to the
United States has been overstated," they write.
"Evidence that Hussein presents an
imminent and uncontrollable threat is simply not there. Neither
does evidence exist that having Hussein in power is any more
threatening than the rule of other despotic tyrants around the
world."
Writing in Foreign Policy (January/February 2003), John J.
Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt agree.
"The campaign to wage war against Iraq rests on a flimsy
foundation," they write.
"Americans should understand that a compelling strategic
rationale is absent."
Summarizing the research of these and
other foreign policy experts, here are 10 reasons why the U.S.
should not go to war with Iraq:
1) Even if he does have nuclear
weapons (or other weapons of mass destruction) Saddam Hussein
would not risk using them on the United States.
While there is clear evidence that
Iraq possesses a variety of chemical and biological weapons
(including mustard gas, nerve gas, and anthrax) – and while he
may be working to build nuclear weapons -- there is almost no
chance that Hussein would use them to attack the United States.
Why? Because Hussein has no wish to
die. The Iraqi dictator understands that if he attacks the
United States, he faces massive, devastating retaliation.
"Hussein had an opportunity to use
chemical weapons against U.S. troops during the Persian Gulf
War, and he did not," note Eland and Gourley. "The lesson to be
drawn from this is that Hussein was deterred from using
chemical weapons against an adversary capable of massive
retaliation."
Even CIA director George Tenet in a
letter to Congress, admitted that Iraq would not risk an attack
on the world's only superpower. He wrote: "[Iraq] for now
appears to be drawing a line short of conducting ... attacks
with conventional or chemical or biological weapons against the
United States."
But might Hussein use WMD against the
U.S. because he is insane, irrational, or reckless? No.
Contrary to Bush Administration allegations, Hussein is neither
a madman, nor irrational.
"Hussein, while he may not act
morally, is rational in the sense that economists and political
scientists use the term," write Eland and Gourley. "Although he
is prone to take risky and even foolhardy actions, he always
does so with one eye focused on maintaining power over Iraq.
[Hussein] holds his physical and political survival as
paramount among his preferences."
2) There is no evidence that Saddam
Hussein helped the September 11 terrorists.
Is Hussein an ally of al Qaeda? No,
say Mearsheimer and Walt.
"There is no credible evidence that
Iraq had anything to do with the terrorist attacks against the
World Trade Center and the Pentagon," they write. "Hawks inside
and outside the Bush administration have gone to extraordinary
lengths over the past months to find a link, but they have come
up empty-handed."
This isn't surprising, note
Mearsheimer and Walt, because "relations between Saddam and al
Qaeda have always been quite poor."
"Osama bin Laden is a radical
fundamentalist, and he detests secular leaders like Saddam,"
they write. "Similarly, Saddam has consistently repressed
fundamentalist movements within Iraq."
Given the non-alliance between Hussein
and al Qaeda, an invasion of Iraq would represent a setback in
the U.S.'s efforts to seek justice for the September 11
attacks, argue Eland and Gourley.
"Instead of being part of the war on
the terrorist network that remains viable and is still
attacking the United States, an unprovoked invasion of Iraq
would detract from it," they write. "Scarce intelligence
resources, special operations forces, and the attention of
policy makers would need to be shifted [away from al Qaeda] to
an attack on Iraq."
Hussein has given aid to Islamic
terrorists -- most recently, to the families of Palestinian
suicide bombers -- but "the terrorist groups that Iraq supports
do not focus their attacks on the United States," writes the
Cato Institute's Ivan Eland (August 19, 2002). "Such groups
concentrate their attacks on targets in the Middle East."
3) Hussein is extremely unlikely to
give WMD to al Qaeda for future attacks on the United States.
Hussein would not give al Qaeda
nuclear or chemical weapons because doing so would pose a
danger to the Iraqi dictator's favorite cause: The longevity of
Saddam Hussein, argue Mearsheimer and Walt.
"Saddam could never be sure the United
States would not incinerate him if it merely suspected he had
made it possible for anyone to strike the United States with
nuclear weapons," they write. "The U.S. government [is] already
deeply suspicious of Iraq, and a nuclear attack against the
United States or its allies would raise that hostility to fever
pitch.
"No one knows just how vengeful
Americans might feel if WMD were ever used against the U.S.
Indeed, nuclear terrorism is as dangerous for Saddam as it is
for Americans, and he has no more incentive to give al Qaeda
nuclear weapons than the United States does."
So, they conclude, even if "Saddam
thought he could covertly smuggle nuclear weapons to bin Laden,
he would be unlikely to do so."
There's another reason, too, write
Eland and Gourley: Al-Qaeda is so "ideologically incompatible"
with Hussein that the dictator fears the terrorist group "could
ultimately turn on him and use [WMD] weapons against him."
4) The one thing that might convince
Hussein to use WMD against United States is a U.S. invasion of
Iraq.
Given that he faces certain
annihilation if he uses nuclear, chemical, or biological
devices against the United States, what might convince Hussein
to employ such ghastly weapons?
Only the belief that he has nothing
left to lose. In other words, an invasion by the U.S. that
Hussein knows will topple and kill him.
"In the face of a threat to his own
survival, Hussein will have little incentive to do anything but
lash out," write Eland and Gourley. "Under those circumstances,
Hussein is very dangerous."
After all, they note, with an invasion
looming, "the message to Hussein is, no matter what you do, the
U.S. government is coming to eliminate you. That only gives
Hussein more incentive to plan a counterattack -- in the event
of a U.S. invasion -- using WMD against U.S. forces, Israel, or
Saudi oil fields."
Even the CIA acknowledges this
nightmare scenario, write Eland and Gourley.
The spy agency reports that Hussein is
"unlikely to use WMD against the United States unless he feels
that the forcible halt of his political control over Iraq is
going to be brought by a U.S. invasion," they write. "Then he
could commission Islamist terrorist groups to use such weapons
in the United States -- the very threat the United States
sought to avoid by attacking Iraq in the first place."
5) Invading Iraq will make Muslims
hate us more -- increasing the risk of future terrorist attacks
on the United States.
President Bush has made the case that
toppling Saddam Hussein is part of a far-reaching War on
Terrorism. However, a war with Iraq is likely to increase the
threat of terrorism, not decrease it.
"An invasion of Iraq would play right
into al Qaeda's hands," writes Ivan Eland. "Occupation of an
Islamic country by the United States could be a recruiting
poster for Islamic terrorists. We should remember the worldwide
mobilization of Islamic radicals to fight the Soviets in
Afghanistan."
A U.S. attack, he bluntly warns, would
"inflame radical Islamists around the world" and "actually
cause more retaliatory terrorism against U.S. targets."
Further, writes Eland, "A U.S.
invasion of Iraq could destabilize or topple friendly
governments in Turkey, Jordan, Egypt, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.
Enflamed Islamic populations could rise up against those
regimes, which are closely aligned with the United States."
6) Iraq is a greatly diminished
military power, and poses little threat even to its neighbors.
In the 1991 Gulf War, Iraq was able to
field only a "Third World military" that quickly crumbled
before the U.S.'s technology and power, notes Owen Cote Jr.,
associate director of Security Studies at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology, in the Boston Globe (January 12,
2003).
Since then, he says, "the Iraqi
military has done nothing except decline in size and degrade in
capability."
The numbers are stark. In 1990, Iraq
had 1 million men in its armed forces, backed up by 5,500
tanks. By contrast, the Iraqi military today has only 400,000
men in arms and 2,200 tanks.
But even those numbers are deceiving,
says Cote. The Iraqi tank forces, for example, are primarily
comprised of Soviet T-54, T-55, and T-62 models -- some of
which date to the 1940s.
The Iraqi air force is equally weak,
boasting only a handful of Soviet MiG-29s and French Mirage
F-1s.
"Iraq's military has been devastated
by the Gulf War and a decade of sanctions," writes Eland.
"Americans should ask why the United States -- half a world
away -- is more concerned about the Iraqi threat than are
Iraq's neighbors [who oppose a U.S. invasion]."
7) A war against Iraq is
unconstitutional.
The U.S. Constitution (Article I,
Section 8) is clear: "The Congress shall have power ... to
declare war."
"Congress, not the president, has the
power to declare war," writes William Raspberry in the
Washington Post (January 6, 2003). "Nor do I find anything to
suggest that Congress may delegate its war-making authority to
the president."
On October 11, President Bush did
receive Congressional "authorization" for military action
against Iraq, but not the declaration of war the Constitution
requires.
The Bush administration has tried to
sidestep this formality, invoking what Vice President Dick
Cheney calls the "inherent presidential power" to defend "vital
national interests."
"Bush's lawyers have assured him he
may start dropping bombs on Baghdad anytime the urge strikes,
without the bother of getting approval from ... the other end
of Pennsylvania Avenue," writes Steve Chapman on TownHall.com
(September 2, 2002). "If the founding fathers were to hear all
this, they would wonder how their cherished republic fell back
under the rule of the King of England. They took care not to
give the executive a free hand to initiate armed hostilities."
Eland and Gourley warn bluntly: "An
unprovoked attack on another sovereign state ... undermines the
principles of a constitutional republic."
8) A war against Iraq will be
enormously expensive.
How much will a war with Iraq cost?
"Although it is difficult to predict
how much Americans would pay for a new war with Iraq, one fact
seems indisputable: It will be many times more than the cost of
the last [Persian Gulf] war," writes Michael Dobbs in the
Washington Post (December 1, 2002).
Given all the variables, even federal
bureaucrats don't know how much Gulf War II could cost. "It is
impossible to know what any military campaign would ultimately
cost," acknowledges Trent Duffy, a spokesman for the White
House Office of Management and Budget.
However, according to "best-guess"
estimates by Congressional staff and Washington, DC think
tanks, it could cost as much as $100 billion to $200 billion to
invade and occupy Iraq.
And, if "Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein blows up his country's oil fields, most economists
believe the indirect costs of the war could be much greater,
reverberating through the U.S. economy for many years," writes
Dobbs.
Ivan Eland agrees that an expensive
war poses a danger to the U.S. economy, given the growing
federal budget deficits and sluggish economy. "An invasion and
long-term occupation of Iraq could ... bust the budget and
throw the U.S. economy into a tailspin," he writes.
9) A pre-emptive strike is
un-American.
In September 2002, the Bush
Administration released a document entitled "The National
Military Strategy for the United States of America" which
outlined a new "first-strike" policy for the United States.
Under this policy -- which represented
a sharp break from the past and serves as the strategic
underpinning for the war with Iraq -- the U.S. can attack
another nation if there is evidence that it is building or
trying to obtain WMD.
The policy does not require those
"enemy" nations to possess working weapons, or to even
explicitly threaten the U.S.'s security.
Indeed, the U.S. military is now
authorized to "act against ... emerging threats before they are
fully formed," writes President Bush.
The problem with such a shoot-first
doctrine -- besides the almost unlimited power it gives the
U.S. government to wage war around the globe -- is that it
stands in stark contrast to American tradition.
While our nation has never fully lived
up to its don't-strike-first ideal (the U.S. attacked first or
fabricated a pretext for the Mexican War in 1846-47, the War of
1812, and the Vietnam War), the U.S. has never seen itself as
an aggressor in war, notes Ken Ringle in the Washington Post
(November 19, 2002).
"We have always told ourselves,
Americans don't shoot first," he writes. "The
no-preemptive-attack rule is as fundamental an American value
as almost anything in our culture."
For example, the Declaration of
Independence lists 27 accusations against King George III "in
an effort to prove that Americans weren't the ones who started
the American Revolution," writes Ringle.
Moving forward almost two centuries,
John F. Kennedy said in a speech: "Our arms will never be used
to strike the first blow in any attack. It is our national
tradition."
Ringle quotes David Hackett Fischer, a
history professor at Brandeis University, who says, "It has
been our collective judgment as a nation that something as
immensely serious as war should only be embarked on for very
clearly defensive reasons. And our culture tells us we depart
from that judgment at our peril."
10) A war against Iraq is utterly
arbitrary.
Iraq isn't the only nation with a
nuclear weapons program, a bellicose foreign policy, and the
potential to give WMD to terrorists: North Korea and Pakistan
also fit those criteria.
Take North Korea. The reclusive
communist nation, ruled by Kim Jong Il, has been covertly
obtaining tools to produce weapons-grade uranium, according to
the CIA. North Korea has been buying high-speed centrifuge
machines, with which the communists can produce weapons-grade
fissionable material from natural uranium -- enough to
manufacture two or three nuclear warheads a year.
While the CIA is unsure whether North
Korea has actually built nuclear devices, its weapons program
violates international law and agreements with the U.S.
Given the United States' doctrine of
pre-emptive strike against nations with WMD assets, Seymour M.
Hersh (in the New Yorker, January 27, 2003) notes: "Logically,
the new strategy should have applied first to North Korea,
whose nuclear-weapons program remains far more advanced than
Iraq's."
Where is North Korea getting its
nuclear technology? From Pakistan. According to Hersh,
"Pakistan has been sharing sophisticated technology, warhead
design information, and weapons-testing data with the Pyongyang
regime."
In exchange, Pakistan has purchased
long-range missiles from North Korea, with which it could
launch nuclear weapons at its rival, India. Indeed, the
military brinkmanship between Pakistan and India almost
triggered a nuclear war in 2002.
Pakistan's threats don't stop there.
According to Hersh, there are "close ties between some
scientists working for the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission
and radical Islamic groups."
Hersh quotes one unnamed
nonproliferation expert who says: "Right now, the most
dangerous nation in the world is Pakistan. If we're incinerated
next week, it'll be because of H.E.U. [highly enriched uranium]
that was given to al Qaeda by Pakistan."
Given their similarities to Iraq, is
the U.S. planning to invade North Korea and Pakistan? No.
President Bush is reportedly
considering renewed aid to North Korea in exchange for a
promise to end its nuclear program.
And Pakistan is our ally in the "War
on Terrorism."
Conclusion
Reviewing the evidence, "the
assumptions that underlie the administration's [plans to invade
Iraq] range from cautiously pessimistic to outright
fallacious," write Eland and Gourley. "His aggressive nature
may be cause for concern, but it is not a threat to the United
States a half a world away. Iraq's pursuit of NBC [nuclear,
biological, and chemical] weapons may be a cause for concern,
but it is not a sufficient reason for going to war."
If there is, then, no solid rationale
for an invasion, how should the U.S deal with a rogue dictator
like Saddam Hussein?
Eland and Gourley offer a
straightforward prescription: "Hussein must be made to know
that if he uses NBC weapons against America, or if he assists
others in doing so, he and his regime will be destroyed."
Even the Bush administration took this
sensible position -- before it started beating the drums of
war.
In January 2000, national security
advisor Condoleezza Rice said that if Iraq did acquire WMD,
"The first line of defense should be a clear and classical
statement of deterrence. If they do acquire WMD, their weapons
will be unusable because any attempt to use them will bring
national obliteration."
Such a policy of deterrence worked
successfully against the Soviet Union -- a much more powerful
adversary, note Eland and Gourley: "The United States deterred
and contained a rival superpower, which had thousands or
nuclear warheads, for 40 years; America can certainly continue
to successfully deter and contain a relatively small,
relatively poor nation until its leader dies or is deposed."
In other words, a military conflict
with Iraq is not necessary, write Eland and Gourley: "Despite
the furor over Hussein in the world media, there is no reason
to believe that removing him from power is critical to American
national security."